Results for the U.S. 2024 Election: Current Status and Future Implications

Where We Are 

The media has declared Donald Trump will be the president of the United States, having secured enough electoral votes to win the election; he also appears to have won the popular vote, although the latter is still being counted. The Republican Party has regained control of the U.S. Senate and it looks likely that they will retain control of the House of Representatives. There is no scenario where Republicans alone will be able to override the filibuster in the Senate, which requires 60 votes. So as long the filibuster remains a part of Senate rules, this will be one avenue for Democrats to influence policy making. Final results for the House will take time, especially with votes still being counted in key swing districts.

Policy Implications

Markets and Economic Actors Anticipate

Businesses should be aware that there will be a roughly two-month delay before the new Congress takes office, and two and a half months before Trump moves back into the White House on January 20, 2025. However, this will not stop the markets and other economic actors from anticipating the impact of the new U.S. political alignment and adjusting behavior accordingly.

Policy-Making Dependent on Intra-Republican Party Dynamics

At the highest level, the key policy implication of this election is that most policy decisions – provided the Republicans do maintain control of the House of Representatives – will be the result of either (a) Executive Orders from the Trump White House or (b) laws passed by a Congress where Republicans will (likely) control both houses with fairly slim majorities. In both cases, this means most policy making will be a result of intra-Republican party negotiations, as opposed to cross-party negotiations between Democrats and Republicans. This is certainly the case for Executive Orders and will also be the case for tax bills that can be passed using what is known as a “reconciliation procedure” that will allow Republicans to sidestep the possibility of a Democratic filibuster. For other forms of legislation, the filibuster will allow Democrats to have some limited influence, as long as it remains part of the Senate rules. Trump’s preferences will obviously play an outsized role in determining Executive Orders, and a still important role in the shape of legislation. The slim majorities the Republicans will hold in both houses of Congress, however, will have the potential to make negotiations within the party contentious, and, as we’ve learned in this past Congressional session, give a small but determined number of legislators the power to hold up legislation. Whether Trump can control this process more effectively with unified Republican control of Washington will be important to monitor.

With that in mind, four areas likely to see important policy developments in the coming months and years are:

One other area worth watching concerns personnel in the executive branch and regulatory agencies. Some supporters of Trump have proposed reclassifying a non-trivial number of current government civil servants as political employees. Should this happen, it poses two potential risks for businesses. The first risk is related to challenges associated with personnel turnover. Although there is always some turnover after a change in power, it could be significantly higher than in past years, leading to delays in filling positions. The second risk is that the new political appointees may approach their roles differently than career civil servants, creating uncertainty about the continuity of past policies and procedures.

It is worth noting that the combined impact of many of the policies discussed above would have a chance of adding inflationary pressure to the economy.

What Does This Mean for Businesses in the Weeks and Months to Come?

In a recent webinar with experts from Kroll on Adapting to Global Election Outcomes, we asked attendees from financial services and institutions, law firms and corporations for their views on the business risks related to the election. Social unrest, high cost of business, economic policy shifts and market volatility and political instability emerged as the top concerns. Our survey revealed that many attendees are focused on financial contingency planning, scenario planning, and risk monitoring to prepare for potential outcomes. Some are also diversifying their investments to mitigate risks.

To stay ahead, businesses should understand potential risks and prepare for various outcomes to maintain stability and growth. Effective anticipation, planning, and risk management will be key competitive advantages.